Don’t Bet

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Section E.4 Don’t Bet

In summary, here are the reasons you should not bet on the Super Bowl:

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If the implied probabilities are right (within a few percent) all wagers have negative expected value.
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If you think the implied probabilities are wrong, you might be able to make a good bet—but only if you are right. The odds represent the aggregated knowledge of everyone who places a bet, which probably includes people who know more than you do.
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Even if the implied probabilities are wrong, the market tends to correct quickly. Unless you have information that the market doesn’t have, you are probably not going to find a good bet.
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