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Think Stats
Exploratory Data Analysis in Python
Allen B. Downey
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Front Matter
Colophon
Preface
Note on This PreTeXt Edition
1
Exploratory Data Analysis
1.1
Evidence
1.2
The National Survey of Family Growth
1.3
Reading the Data
1.4
Validation
1.5
Transformation
1.6
Summary Statistics
1.7
Interpretation
1.8
Glossary
1.9
Exercises
2
Distributions
2.1
Frequency Tables
2.2
NSFG Distributions
2.3
Outliers
2.4
First Babies
2.5
Effect Size
2.6
Reporting Results
2.7
Glossary
2.8
Exercises
3
Probability Mass Functions
3.1
PMFs
3.2
Summarizing a PMF
3.3
The Class Size Paradox
3.4
NSFG Data
3.5
Other Visualizations
3.6
Glossary
3.7
Exercises
4
Cumulative Distribution Functions
4.1
Percentiles and Percentile Ranks
4.2
CDFs
4.3
Comparing CDFs
4.4
Percentile-Based Statistics
4.5
Random Numbers
4.6
Glossary
4.7
Exercises
5
Modeling Distributions
5.1
The Binomial Distribution
5.2
The Poisson Distribution
5.3
The Exponential Distribution
5.4
The Normal Distribution
5.5
The Lognormal Distribution
5.6
Why Model?
5.7
Glossary
5.8
Exercises
6
Probability Density Functions
6.1
Comparing Distributions
6.2
Probability Density
6.3
The Exponential PDF
6.4
Comparing PMFs and PDFs
6.5
Kernel Density Estimation
6.6
The Distribution Framework
6.7
Glossary
6.8
Exercises
7
Relationships Between Variables
7.1
Scatter Plots
7.2
Decile Plots
7.3
Correlation
7.4
Strength of Correlation
7.5
Rank Correlation
7.6
Correlation and Causation
7.7
Glossary
7.8
Exercises
8
Estimation
8.1
Weighing Penguins
8.2
Robustness
8.3
Estimating Variance
8.4
Sampling Distributions
8.5
Standard Error
8.6
Confidence Intervals
8.7
Sources of Error
8.8
Glossary
8.9
Exercises
9
Hypothesis Testing
9.1
Flipping Coins
9.2
Testing a Difference in Means
9.3
Other Test Statistics
9.4
Testing a Correlation
9.5
Testing Proportions
9.6
Glossary
9.7
Exercises
10
Least Squares
10.1
Least Squares Fit
10.2
Coefficient of Determination
10.3
Minimizing MSE
10.4
Estimation
10.5
Visualizing Uncertainty
10.6
Transformation
10.7
Glossary
10.8
Exercises
11
Multiple Regression
11.1
StatsModels
11.2
On To Multiple Regression
11.3
Control Variables
11.4
Nonlinear Relationships
11.5
Logistic Regression
11.6
Glossary
11.7
Exercises
12
Time Series Analysis
12.1
Electricity
12.2
Decomposition
12.3
Prediction
12.4
Multiplicative Model
12.5
Autoregression
12.6
Moving Average
12.7
Retrodiction with Autoregression
12.8
ARIMA
12.9
Prediction with ARIMA
12.10
Glossary
12.11
Exercises
13
Survival Analysis
13.1
Survival Functions
13.2
Hazard Function
13.3
Marriage Data
13.4
Weighted Bootstrap
13.5
Estimating Hazard Functions
13.6
Estimating Survival Functions
13.7
Lifelines
13.8
Confidence Intervals
13.9
Expected Remaining Lifetime
13.10
Glossary
13.11
Exercises
14
Analytic Methods
14.1
Normal Probability Plots
14.2
Normal Distributions
14.3
Distribution of Sample Means
14.4
Distribution of Differences
14.5
Central Limit Theorem
14.6
The Limits of the Central Limit Theorem
14.7
Applying the CLT
14.8
Correlation Test
14.9
Chi-squared Test
14.10
Computation and Analysis
14.11
Glossary
14.12
Exercises
Examples
A
Rip-off ETF?
A.1
The Dow Jones
A.2
Long-Term Returns
B
Fourier Components Don’t Phase Me
B.1
Regression with Fourier Components
B.2
Fourier Analysis
C
Downloading Our World in Data
C.1
Air Temperature
D
The Variability Hypothesis
D.1
Data
D.2
Difference in Means
D.3
Difference in Standard Deviations
D.4
Difference in Coefficient of Variation
D.5
Difference in Robust CV
D.6
Difference in IQR / Median
D.7
Discussion
E
Don’t Bet on the Super Bowl
E.1
Expected Value
E.2
Implied Probability
E.3
The Take
E.4
Don’t Bet
Colophon
Colophon
Website
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©2014–2026 Allen B. Downey
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